Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.837993 0.978084 1.134051 1.320540 1.537463 1.781854 2.078160
2024-12-29 0.644884 0.840945 1.084005 1.407379 1.826409 2.351290 3.059319
2025-01-05 0.498143 0.702462 0.975705 1.367647 1.915612 2.655057 3.730143
2025-01-12 0.399126 0.599893 0.885472 1.320990 1.968666 2.897145 4.331761
2025-01-19 0.329032 0.522627 0.813113 1.280236 2.013015 3.119813 4.922234
2025-01-26 0.290270 0.484359 0.789793 1.304731 2.151878 3.492306 5.779729
2025-02-02 0.271446 0.473732 0.806156 1.391216 2.396241 4.055026 7.008512
2025-02-09 0.247610 0.450517 0.797633 1.433418 2.570240 4.521380 8.134809
2025-02-16 0.223747 0.423313 0.777814 1.451851 2.703150 4.930794 9.210963
2025-02-23 0.200861 0.394282 0.750292 1.451483 2.800051 5.285039 10.228090
2025-03-02 0.179612 0.365147 0.718365 1.437756 2.868591 5.592835 11.193070
2025-03-09 0.163054 0.342745 0.696017 1.438850 2.964320 5.960564 12.315828
2025-03-16 0.142205 0.309258 0.648606 1.385705 2.949420 6.119466 13.060691
2025-03-23 0.137972 0.310056 0.670823 1.479352 3.249181 6.947999 15.298913
2025-03-30 0.122127 0.283388 0.632042 1.437680 3.255941 7.170589 16.276885
2025-04-06 0.107782 0.257971 0.592496 1.388652 3.239358 7.339762 17.157215
2025-04-13 0.095729 0.236091 0.557857 1.345824 3.230504 7.523430 18.092082
2025-04-20 0.089725 0.227741 0.552981 1.371565 3.383767 8.090411 19.990911
2025-04-27 0.088279 0.230348 0.574134 1.462450 3.704154 9.082826 23.035155
2025-05-04 0.084069 0.225380 0.576326 1.506799 3.916006 9.842373 25.605286
2025-05-11 0.078845 0.217042 0.569067 1.526169 4.067285 10.471932 27.928388
2025-05-18 0.073127 0.206565 0.554977 1.525781 4.167092 10.983833 30.011213
2025-05-25 0.067305 0.194986 0.536538 1.511357 4.227834 11.402888 31.902350